FROZEN PREDICTION

Charlotte vs Temple

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Temple by 8.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:18:00.328312-05:00 · Snapshot 511 · Home win probability 0.7542 · 80% margin interval -7.7 to 25.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 5:49 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.17525892436472015
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.07137442609445563
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.02991581441208007
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.15429182297059854
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.09593251317210288
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.008427119022516284
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.012894295982554448
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.010185705149211747
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.0020249304381361943
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.0023200153482043386
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.08862438676846765
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.08888638691144882
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.05865724087190748
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.010499613329053852
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.040013782590164554
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.10051919677407586

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.