FROZEN PREDICTION

Auburn vs Georgia

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Georgia by 11.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:18:00.328312-05:00 · Snapshot 511 · Home win probability 0.8098 · 80% margin interval -5.3 to 28.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 5:49 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.1852864412816591
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.05268558605968574
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	0.030498449023412123
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.036379238592530005
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.17412321169185674
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	-0.014429256118298966
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.005810837219848264
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.0036438360878722417
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.03538593619273614
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.011540465745507461
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.24750045562468206
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	0.1144287609248606
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.05436596666498393
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.019556000441705634
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.14255408243062961
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.2418698475104907

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.