FROZEN PREDICTION

Arizona State vs Texas Tech

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Texas Tech by 13.5

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:18:00.328312-05:00 · Snapshot 511 · Home win probability 0.8504 · 80% margin interval -3.2 to 30.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 5:49 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.295213060096734
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.14941300983388023
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.19768668827866437
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.02849178747828874
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.0020379307440072034
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.028431445383279675
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.01199886447191024
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.02951725523283147
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.003589779050198737
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.24685688536946448
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	0.11965487769333556
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.07985406030492917
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.1042212515107476
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.04618318034224811
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.23203485858975761

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.