FROZEN PREDICTION

Troy vs Louisiana

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Louisiana by 2.6

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:18:00.328312-05:00 · Snapshot 511 · Home win probability 0.5807 · 80% margin interval -14.0 to 19.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 5:49 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.008219749933390967
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.03207440753815258
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	-0.028190939614104984
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.0316367024658495
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.02871800275236287
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.014120134034234406
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.0001104118055070772
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.0005707838863598363
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.029609692314719434
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.009033869386480299
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.012818727939030647
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	0.05194440094259521
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.0016438603540993024
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.07142564682758981
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.015667689164079308
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.04083145396233902

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.