FROZEN PREDICTION

Wake Forest vs California

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 7 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Wake Forest by 2.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:18:00.328312-05:00 · Snapshot 511 · Home win probability 0.4345 · 80% margin interval -18.8 to 14.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 5:49 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.0952537867483074
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.03358796522092029
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.02991581441208008
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.062039064348079445
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.02680574594307551
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.002662161782712115
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.00997102796661671
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.004688335296025666
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.022897290338924674
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.01249578685370532
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.0033373548137673875
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.14243457537534393
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.1030259096891395
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.09614846461417989
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.08002756518032912
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.20103839354815167

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.