FROZEN PREDICTION

South Alabama vs Marshall

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

South Alabama by 1.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:34.045739-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.4439 · 80% margin interval -18.5 to 14.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.17038393817854552
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.0460546376408842
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.007554603173407962
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.021293067063319154
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.16526853090338522
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.0279077173642176
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.006105438022741423
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.007948791745990716
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.005360873531732369
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.005774176317961554
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.062226248689369205
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.05928594463511542
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.024851948009876144
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.02407498842832395
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.08003082528274873
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.10118001873620511

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.