FROZEN PREDICTION

New Mexico State vs Sam Houston

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Sam Houston by 1.2

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:34.045739-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.5380 · 80% margin interval -15.4 to 17.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14149443561208266	-0.026639523255754888
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	-0.04592215767100197
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.02702702702702703	-0.04523014028982313
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08843402225755168	0.05856491304563052
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08843402225755168	-0.03055874611084232
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.0033047525578495246
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.0010157180318635523
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.010671343658624342
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.01728979066408598
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.002393375267996687
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.106120826709062	-0.0074777558920604
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07074721780604133	-0.07888045622050704
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	0.00038076473272156963
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.106120826709062	0.10316866812341573
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	-0.039957282834775135
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14149443561208266	-0.09986564300804213

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.