FROZEN PREDICTION

East Carolina vs Memphis

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Memphis by 5.6

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:34.045739-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.6659 · 80% margin interval -11.1 to 22.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	0.06922815013905567
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	0.07157146364618541
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03639724630290668	0.03505864354920959	0.047062031865197786
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	-0.022637127264171532
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	0.09675965514542365
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.005067567567567568	0.010135135135135136	0.01023704977876122
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	-0.0053016483319001766
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	0.004211439393581732
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	0.005323507380406463
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	0.006479203220023634
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	0.0458247601740457
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07279449260581336	0.07011728709841918	0.02077287471526905
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	0.01740956118228394
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	-0.12075403242387359
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	0.05910048239526433
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	0.13333275485389937

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.