FROZEN PREDICTION

Duke vs Virginia

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Virginia by 1.6

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:34.045739-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.5477 · 80% margin interval -15.1 to 18.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.009423799191632679
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.11443598606538577
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	0.045331340956380695
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.040503289763060016
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.006907708937085567
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.010293046974880343
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.001091284230442545
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.009440156731998295
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.0025457181896298836
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.0010643159613727166
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.028935172930701938
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	-0.09144904891470482
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.06433178565693534
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.117270325051592
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.02181172132696195
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.07571304801240461

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.