FROZEN PREDICTION

Oregon vs Illinois

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Oregon by 4.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:34.045739-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.3518 · 80% margin interval -21.6 to 11.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.1388396938282905
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.06080707330835614
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	-0.0005731750536727576
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.15056134721718256
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.10255948020845845
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.019794669572108535
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.024079418786852002
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.04128150111458598
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.036758700827526525
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.04867238077951264
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.11619554278159741
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	-0.1336612947835531
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.02813408278782041
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.12583196125778942
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.01564207225061915
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.060112928759986015

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.