FROZEN PREDICTION

Hawai'i vs Northern Illinois

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Northern Illinois by 4.0

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesStrongly leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:34.045739-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.6221 · 80% margin interval -12.6 to 20.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.010833748186663189
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.06885385940853324
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	0.0017269689928841522
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.05853245238530358
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.0055254016637324155
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	-0.04272460339606529
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.026442165854421412
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.008044399715596146
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.010385833475746956
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.013029241114464615
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.004674128971716568
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	-0.04389063671324886
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.0016182501140666466
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.32191677705766986
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.003302774097933503
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.009449333923711667

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.