FROZEN PREDICTION

West Virginia vs TCU

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

TCU by 3.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:34.045739-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.6193 · 80% margin interval -12.7 to 20.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.0847587445960492
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.05243350282819538
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	-0.043600650047563604
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.20634592610481695
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.09525132122423989
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	0.00007194222808603343
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.01796511330825265
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.008448735514912738
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.000754433571278636
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.01597031995632023
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.0783022194608582
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	0.08955777828419616
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.07652479506343587
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.026424521348308777
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.055657484891993514
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.056667209228637626

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.