FROZEN PREDICTION

Bowling Green vs Buffalo

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Buffalo by 5.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesNeutral effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionNeutral effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:34.045739-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.6581 · 80% margin interval -11.4 to 22.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.054284728025129264
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.030218412693631833
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.005219844022125664
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.0645923090877145
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.016707360153572593
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.001691690248164032
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.00010271726320161025
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.0
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.001763665827509326
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.13584438573799393
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.016168893991395115
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.00528534304267782
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.0023303445862045084
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.10118001873620514

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.