FROZEN PREDICTION

Tennessee vs South Carolina

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Tennessee by 0.1

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:34.045739-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.4976 · 80% margin interval -16.7 to 16.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.023140416538281194
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.11722998672225068
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.045327619040447756
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.02175595406792489
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.002501942323791223
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.018671851951849804
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.006551271360543295
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.011198413883918429
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.017497475837228153
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.004202268148378846
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.09930094507330692
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.048506681974185346
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.013180315167669397
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.159439060378935
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.20236003747241027

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.