FROZEN PREDICTION

North Texas vs Navy

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

North Texas by 1.5

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentHome data unavailable

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:34.045739-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.4537 · 80% margin interval -18.2 to 15.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.07369317914245718
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.11104849618932072
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	-0.06712980502219602
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.07822652617835293
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.1594977591752812
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	-0.015249257824833
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.007998470448218324
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.026991732845420363
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.0014813316772762444
Team talent	Data unavailable	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.011106431164808554
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.02196598509378168
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	-0.12201791586886246
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.051037572576439795
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.001823368643926987
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.07055840210847242
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.15784722796484274

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.