FROZEN PREDICTION

Boise State vs Washington State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Boise State by 7.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:34.045739-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.2755 · 80% margin interval -24.4 to 8.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.2333107000958248
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.08373570480160765
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.045327619040447756
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.0123198467465401
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.15955363770305717
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.000018359736432499094
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.0004789770058864348
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.007617047652116953
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.011747192605854216
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.005196380217103696
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.18005092485349675
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.14731658969937772
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.09408287925857135
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.016275964530418345
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.12004623792412311
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.40472007494482054

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.