FROZEN PREDICTION

San Diego State vs Colorado State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Colorado State by 0.7

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:34.045739-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.5225 · 80% margin interval -15.9 to 17.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	-0.01751137097262276
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	-0.0005462328641960695
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.03505864354920959	-0.04542509779107237
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	-0.12471231110693902
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	0.1375431500846405
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.005379402774721723
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.021221918225680786
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.0022173136427514764
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.025610177913094327
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.0013322110971744315
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	-0.08350314381041778
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07074721780604133	0.07011728709841918	-0.015791367505204823
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	-0.00038076473272156963
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	-0.08470620775206099
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	0.039957282834775135
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	-0.0013143757281630364

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.