FROZEN PREDICTION

Utah State vs Texas State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Texas State by 7.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:34.045739-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.7156 · 80% margin interval -9.3 to 24.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.1872968038302416
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.008373570480160762
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.045327619040447756
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.08903386322348618
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.21709389228600384
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.018149517450345255
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.0013374379273780263
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.0020728561489202317
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.0056074996748386955
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.013696795342824686
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.11320093890615034
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.13321372105132756
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.03294323897435478
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.12004623792412311
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.10118001873620514

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.