FROZEN PREDICTION

North Dakota State vs New Mexico

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 8 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

New Mexico by 2.5

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionAway data unavailable

Team talentAway data unavailable

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:34.045739-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.5767 · 80% margin interval -14.1 to 19.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.0766663050972096
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.01036827577301036
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	-0.043600650047563604
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.021309671331696117
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.14663431890908152
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	0.015549200040681301
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.02937070207988935
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.014854932034551176
Returning production	Measured	Data unavailable	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.012534267872543976
Team talent	Measured	Data unavailable	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.037621439581113164
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.10296500903870794
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	0.011221936728309775
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.053604393564973866
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.008231085704477142
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.027981370403304784
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.025466970723800553

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.