FROZEN PREDICTION

Baylor vs UCF

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 9 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

UCF by 0.9

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:36.912781-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.5277 · 80% margin interval -15.8 to 17.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.04336886529226708
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.05131448931857389
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	0.043600650047563604
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.0028651811419042883
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.04572541515610387
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	-0.009554746095470922
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.004957623879273901
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.005661576984434993
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.02307744004678582
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.006417130057311299
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.04673650171110049
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	-0.13622545271956224
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.0377422844293904
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.19567536351413664
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.06182713396833632
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.17689306674860972

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.