FROZEN PREDICTION

Illinois vs Maryland

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 9 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Maryland by 2.0

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:36.912781-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.5609 · 80% margin interval -14.7 to 18.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	-0.041340377915140294
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	-0.050787655745160656
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.03505864354920959	0.015011727596191298
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	0.036526156152222364
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	-0.014771063479065035
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.005820036449101658
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.015714094275708964
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.0015516477038406556
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.017082105490943807
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.004690493237968328
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	-0.005344594999791813
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07074721780604133	0.07011728709841918	-0.06789113703303351
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	0.010204462713729712
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	0.13501883775857124
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	-0.000058129806599234966
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	-0.10249439446436817

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.