FROZEN PREDICTION

Miami vs North Carolina

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 9 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Miami by 0.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away
Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away
Close-game gritAway data unavailable
Defensive toughnessSmall effect
Scoring punchModerately leans away
Transfer portal impactSmall effect
Previous-season performanceModerately leans away
Recruiting strengthSmall effect
Returning productionSmall effect
Team talentSmall effect
Big-game winsModerately leans home
Recent formModerately leans away
Wins away from homeSmall effect
Tough schedulesStrongly leans home
Statement winsModerately leans away
WinningModerately leans away
Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:36.912781-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.4728 · 80% margin interval -17.5 to 15.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used
Configuration
Revision 3
Engine version
3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff
Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor keyNormalized share
adj_margin0.108108
avoid_bad_losses0.040541
close_game_wins0.027027
defense_ppg0.067568
offense_ppg0.067568
preseason_portal0.040541
preseason_previous_performance0.054054
preseason_recruiting0.067568
preseason_returning0.054054
preseason_talent0.067568
quality_wins0.081081
recent_form0.054054
road_neutral_wins0.040541
sos0.081081
statement_wins0.040541
win_pct0.108108
Retained calibration/contextFrozen value
versionprovisional-all-slates-policy-v1
calibration_kinddocumented_policy
validation_statusnot_historically_validated
applied_home_field_points2.5
applied_fcs_baseline_z-1.5
residual_scale13.0
residual_scale_sourcedocumented_policy_not_validated
intercept0.0
difference_coefficient7.0
home_field_coefficient2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

FactorHome evidenceAway evidenceNormalized shareHome effective shareAway effective shareWeighted difference
Game controlMeasuredMeasured0.1081080.134880163182049980.1359300476947536-0.11727377973435829
Avoiding bad lossesMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.0505800611932687440.050973767885532595-0.05366334868436351
Close-game gritMeasuredData unavailable0.0270270.0337200407955124960.027027027027027030.014626066211901897
Defensive toughnessMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.084300101988781240.08495627980922099-0.002394607875287058
Scoring punchMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.084300101988781240.08495627980922099-0.12187623291170631
Transfer portal impactMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.0152027027027027040.015202702702702704-0.010520128975820978
Previous-season performanceMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.020270270270270270.02027027027027027-0.05077681341737129
Recruiting strengthMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.025337837837837840.02533783783783784-0.02656311981417034
Returning productionMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.020270270270270270.02027027027027027-0.007087256533476684
Team talentMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.025337837837837840.02533783783783784-0.02296739500909965
Big-game winsMeasuredMeasured0.0810810.101160122386537490.101947535771065190.08497869473117278
Recent formMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.067440081591024990.0679650238473768-0.1427859133360529
Wins away from homeMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.0505800611932687440.0509737678855325950.03285414747745587
Tough schedulesMeasuredMeasured0.0810810.101160122386537490.101947535771065190.31443208404270434
Statement winsMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.0505800611932687440.050973767885532595-0.13934556940997406
WinningMeasuredMeasured0.1081080.134880163182049980.1359300476947536-0.23549495273634188

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.