FROZEN PREDICTION

Georgia Tech vs Pittsburgh

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 9 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Pittsburgh by 12.0

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:36.912781-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.8211 · 80% margin interval -4.7 to 28.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.22168232817329764
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.0710918864277762
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	0.029645237639959077
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.17754676785154375
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.11107868516122521
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	-0.011656935916991863
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.001849115255604999
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.011265293686094828
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.021730636058638206
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.00801553106121282
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.23683655930729183
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	0.008827491821020175
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.07904921598082956
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.09646715151935473
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.07055840210847242
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.25902724670104793

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.