FROZEN PREDICTION

Boston College vs Duke

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 9 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Duke by 8.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:36.912781-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.7363 · 80% margin interval -8.4 to 24.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.1563248340634607
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.06443081867643702
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	-0.014532309377210216
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.013653830455048921
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.12677643439150602
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	0.011236158696688384
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.023253537528747602
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.004692509319088628
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.0011682290989247328
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.003606810157975102
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.06428217056567585
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	0.1209563928285578
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.0627135355428687
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.166888482348572
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.13855518515315154
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.23356027597724735

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.