FROZEN PREDICTION

Utah vs Cincinnati

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 9 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Utah by 4.7

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:36.912781-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.3588 · 80% margin interval -21.4 to 12.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.1359300476947536	-0.17404659106016424
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050973767885532595	-0.11809416736080053
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.02702702702702703	0.04369068496632234
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08495627980922099	-0.09574950440926923
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08495627980922099	-0.07965470773835624
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	0.0031945941392545435
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.030811259671043794
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.011268773394418896
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.046417636197275874
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.012065593686909399
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10194753577106519	-0.09060668589194591
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.0679650238473768	-0.14248435337556808
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050973767885532595	-0.08788399778709169
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10194753577106519	0.025504977650949102
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050973767885532595	-0.09316050769225687
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.1359300476947536	-0.11871481474771817

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.