FROZEN PREDICTION

Oregon State vs Fresno State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 9 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Oregon State by 3.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:36.912781-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.3836 · 80% margin interval -20.5 to 12.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14149443561208266	-0.23395875225185875
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	-0.0923905482062
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.02702702702702703	-0.04523014028982313
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08843402225755168	-0.08613381752817062
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08843402225755168	-0.15328658305313647
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.023133267904946665
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.012769248355819716
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.004531174253741925
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.01017657348396652
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.010237588118911517
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.106120826709062	-0.0710853361979889
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07074721780604133	-0.07313316857066493
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	-0.006870105978653819
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.106120826709062	-0.15472376005827365
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	-0.0006608637039623583
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14149443561208266	-0.0005036181913751839

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.