FROZEN PREDICTION

South Carolina vs Oklahoma

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 9 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Oklahoma by 2.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:36.912781-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.5654 · 80% margin interval -14.5 to 18.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.10201125240569149
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.013762831883452922
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	0.05985620650172503
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.07132170344604691
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.11719585502240276
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	-0.038356363105363354
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.01913296000408608
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.01691111357691155
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.002464686612425061
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.020441301138504155
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.06968952201473688
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	-0.005672107660275191
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.014457715196306162
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.06585100823069674
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.07055840210847242
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.060112928759986015

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.