FROZEN PREDICTION

Ohio State vs USC

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 9 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Ohio State by 1.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:36.912781-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.4636 · 80% margin interval -17.8 to 15.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	-0.1652777979444122
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	-0.05339265726501377
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03639724630290668	0.03505864354920959	0.09238965090564555
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	-0.13832412273701397
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	-0.059066385608610966
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.005067567567567568	0.010135135135135136	0.00949439844006671
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	-0.01723335915243219
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	-0.016966882154617988
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	-0.009162533446260172
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	-0.020857490950017245
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	0.04031922832325552
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07279449260581336	0.07011728709841918	-0.12471613999659645
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	0.019715628510064483
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	-0.016028898455540983
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	-0.08855119344457056
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	0.021009793794538073

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.