FROZEN PREDICTION

Kansas State vs Colorado

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 9 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Colorado by 0.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:36.912781-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.5046 · 80% margin interval -16.5 to 16.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.1049546129594432
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.0604038925091597
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	0.08719385626326132
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.028315970045223262
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.15100851390838274
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	0.03662767418283222
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.020604671131177386
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.005978471381008493
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.044937879338637875
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.009338724097380477
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.0013260268637762668
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	-0.09158126885590803
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.04273175352275809
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.15757493592458682
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.04618506171771719
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.11678013798862363

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.