FROZEN PREDICTION

Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 9 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Georgia State by 9.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:36.912781-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.7738 · 80% margin interval -6.9 to 26.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1359300476947536	0.14558898521162672	0.21647468367317135
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.05459586945436003	0.011171880414045078
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.03639724630290668	0.028133785303001348
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08495627980922099	0.09099311575726671	0.05247392772072198
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08495627980922099	0.09099311575726671	0.17554310068779472
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.005067567567567568	-0.0027569539001625083
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.006756756756756757	-0.023741950017805852
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.008445945945945946	-0.006588667869886586
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.006756756756756757	0.010355148373189411
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.008445945945945946	-0.005635660877974314
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10194753577106519	0.10919173890872005	0.035314723927517847
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0679650238473768	0.07279449260581336	0.07600276846646452
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.05459586945436003	0.025093507275547808
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10194753577106519	0.10919173890872005	-0.024581216259055183
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.05459586945436003	0.15652765887957165
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1359300476947536	0.14558898521162672	0.31469722093318286

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.