FROZEN PREDICTION

Notre Dame vs Navy

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 9 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Notre Dame by 13.1

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans away

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentHome data unavailable

Big-game winsStrongly leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:36.912781-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.1572 · 80% margin interval -29.7 to 3.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14149443561208266	-0.2651750459066758
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	-0.045341698981265686
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.02702702702702703	-0.021704707231123648
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08843402225755168	-0.14199236539971766
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08843402225755168	-0.17476901087738358
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	0.007076181677083775
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.020786355116051276
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.07846366195049786
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.026767001507335922
Team talent	Data unavailable	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.03216015196842491
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.106120826709062	-0.2581204898401671
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07074721780604133	-0.12301985180013693
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	-0.1707222713224058
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.106120826709062	-0.01071699408997595
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	-0.14353460597113327
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14149443561208266	-0.36252887754816643

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.