FROZEN PREDICTION

Florida International vs Liberty

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 9 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Liberty by 6.5

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:36.912781-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.6905 · 80% margin interval -10.2 to 23.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.09510723091801032
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.012560355720241147
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.045327619040447756
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.02772068498698481
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.11186955527618139
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.019314442726987215
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.0015009950069370965
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.001120815932037422
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.003478726650131414
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.00460596848085594
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.003879463888873641
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.05748940085829375
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.031900089898998146
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.07436753021944152
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.08003082528274874
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.20236003747241027

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.