FROZEN PREDICTION

Ball State vs Massachusetts

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Massachusetts by 8.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceNeutral effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesStrongly leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.305660-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.7502 · 80% margin interval -7.9 to 25.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14149443561208266	0.23321042044649498
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	0.04660087050508027
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.02702702702702703	-0.04523014028982313
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08843402225755168	0.20627043011301296
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08843402225755168	0.05510080398177617
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.003947343332986934
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.0
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.012797917669572278
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.0016874420317801592
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.0008351550628120027
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.106120826709062	0.10703919993227765
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07074721780604133	0.1142163921459746
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	0.0352577600773872
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.106120826709062	-0.2629101020024782
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	0.12046386448600313
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14149443561208266	0.3057634288965475

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.