FROZEN PREDICTION

Toledo vs Sacramento State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Toledo by 5.7

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionHome data unavailable

Team talentHome data unavailable

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.305660-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.3308 · 80% margin interval -22.4 to 11.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	-0.21555203605400336
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	-0.08428193766580372
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.03505864354920959	-0.04542509779107237
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	-0.07064074799800717
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	-0.17723400545460666
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.017423389874439976
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.002361240364354476
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.020743079830290844
Returning production	Data unavailable	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.01256180333782501
Team talent	Data unavailable	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.004674980243032713
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	-0.07151683922957515
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07074721780604133	0.07011728709841918	-0.1649045009814042
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	-0.00038076473272156963
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	0.059483321098922126
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	-0.08044845184462877
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	-0.3057634288965475

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.