FROZEN PREDICTION

New Mexico vs Nevada

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

New Mexico by 4.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.305660-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.3573 · 80% margin interval -21.4 to 11.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.22191331890385824
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.020134630836386568
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.13311249031059416
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.1807093827562426
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.021921525300401833
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.02438096561342009
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.02663146490484476
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.017679200363727554
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.00573598248181862
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.03210967070410217
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	-0.07602973263509347
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.013748563582955575
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.0010961175306375692
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.09237012343543437
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.23356027597724735

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.