FROZEN PREDICTION

Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Mississippi State by 10.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.305660-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.7966 · 80% margin interval -5.9 to 27.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.21648149231574215
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.010375342007387885
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	0.04359320621569772
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.027168103899221193
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.15443205088783885
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	-0.01183434684838849
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.016314907217611606
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.01567905085628297
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.002909167242628689
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.01787717324550506
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.20463223540426034
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	0.08429227179649335
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.15867981177497464
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.04889414288405389
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.055657484891993514
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.17689306674860972

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.