FROZEN PREDICTION

Texas vs Missouri

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Missouri by 2.4

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.305660-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.5730 · 80% margin interval -14.3 to 19.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.03555660876950115
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.013953140303456589
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	-0.05985620650172503
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.005120146916841539
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.024347694460558303
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.020417523630581004
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.005995115523584581
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.03425934248857308
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.023414928453141852
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.030677438459345802
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.009159523584040319
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	0.033636128157312276
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.030203739908663263
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.03524630164704831
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.06438875303212958
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.025466970723800553

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.