FROZEN PREDICTION

Oklahoma vs Florida

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Florida by 4.6

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.305660-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.6394 · 80% margin interval -12.0 to 21.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.0948767456460033
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.0012024761632117818
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	0.030799031579170473
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.13396987675094704
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.17578838619675402
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.012267177634784621
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.02001118119125022
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.010341927192861977
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.0024127653191395176
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.012200768101815293
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.07100326159208865
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	-0.012293330107941605
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.04405451409980617
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.04570888591932827
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.07055840210847242
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.04106708997621909

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.