FROZEN PREDICTION

UCLA vs Minnesota

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

UCLA by 6.5

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.305660-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.3076 · 80% margin interval -23.2 to 10.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.20077815445860273
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.12201026118153119
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	0.0017344128247500298
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.08749260265105688
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.1255634515080825
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	-0.020457216582498657
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.010604937209369957
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.007195502925073186
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.00023522063842320966
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.0139146021695345
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.15354351719200016
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	-0.12260765089125389
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.11553550137376341
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.04825821352586745
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.10801219568605352
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.19249318600102827

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.