FROZEN PREDICTION

Rice vs North Texas

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

North Texas by 10.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesNeutral effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.305660-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.7850 · 80% margin interval -6.4 to 26.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.1751243411036234
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.09065523808089551
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.03904054512683753
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.24300983630998685
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.008684155332571244
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.03202403164916908
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.005879202223815418
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.019158957222365543
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.004931451873915608
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.08312072651482665
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.17812731547186952
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.05265582269050644
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.07956933470193339
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.08003082528274874
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.3035400562086154

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.