FROZEN PREDICTION

Hawai'i vs UTEP

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

UTEP by 4.0

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesStrongly leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.305660-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.6211 · 80% margin interval -12.7 to 20.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	0.002519736943623785
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	-0.07172158194556257
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.03505864354920959	0.04523014028982313
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	-0.03662755043151311
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	0.041931997036667015
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.01628508621562515
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.017565736772097208
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.012532232027651476
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.03221716248367973
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.008916731093588
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	0.0163122922207751
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07074721780604133	0.07011728709841918	-0.049925699264816714
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	-0.00038076473272156963
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	0.2753253411485249
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	0.03959778607949433
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	-0.002223372687932129

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.