FROZEN PREDICTION

Louisville vs Georgia Tech

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Louisville by 1.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.305660-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.4423 · 80% margin interval -18.5 to 14.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.15876153120325726
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.07527867166785657
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	0.030791587747304592
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.04415351853653401
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.13626036060633978
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	0.005267747638482788
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.00008974894669091724
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.013870972952965483
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.019186492687646575
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.005547912778946538
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.09367623851376403
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	0.018120664831305016
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.0016182501140666466
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.08738235651208608
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.030542989467098037
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.056667209228637626

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.