FROZEN PREDICTION

Cincinnati vs Houston

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Houston by 9.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.305660-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.7774 · 80% margin interval -6.7 to 26.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.17856088882753168
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.10362701391160084
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	-0.08892082525614547
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.11590454414943159
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.08419804494756818
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.00997083360049001
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.0009490325500045157
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.002588107380616293
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.046626896189056306
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.00242012253332026
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.18156268140835524
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	0.10800650763126862
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.12977891721374757
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.13760763087303982
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.024373340390755224
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.025466970723800553

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.