FROZEN PREDICTION

Florida State vs Boston College

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Florida State by 2.5

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.305660-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.4252 · 80% margin interval -19.1 to 14.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.1826806538391007
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.020697670708386073
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	0.05985620650172503
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.03072745995072334
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.15148644678988535
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	0.014889167515933017
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.022440369374402754
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.022272074228496124
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.01960186303393092
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.022943238185624965
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.062428501000635954
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	-0.07801402588803834
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.0016182501140666466
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.09993785674244844
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.11674346382618961
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.056667209228637626

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.