FROZEN PREDICTION

Iowa vs Northwestern

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Northwestern by 2.6

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.305660-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.5788 · 80% margin interval -14.1 to 19.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.0892657245347103
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.043740214202428476
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	-0.08892826908801135
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.034048410439298085
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.04210710037269466
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	0.009637364909417157
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.011328831097746305
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.00859162290000257
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.04023742747765794
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.002729836382142535
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.08951901434822243
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	0.07803703300992332
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.11400550715826759
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.015703172519140312
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.06799678304467915
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.025466970723800553

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.