FROZEN PREDICTION

Merrimack vs Wake Forest

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Wake Forest by 17.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.305660-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.9143 · 80% margin interval 1.1 to 34.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.10810810810810811	0.23126081597382311
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.04054054054054054	0.0921191660898032
Close-game grit	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.02702702702702703	0.08596563833161291
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.06756756756756757	0.16863375723406823
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.06756756756756757	0.1302044353087078
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.04054054054054054	0.06559970858440471
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.05405405405405406	0.08688153710284381
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.06756756756756757	0.10701489300537051
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.05405405405405406	0.06659189061713794
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.06756756756756757	0.09756325027622928
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.08108108108108109	0.18917666798089375
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.05405405405405406	0.18335389202826308
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.04054054054054054	0.189611451716873
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.08108108108108109	0.07576359474567748
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.04054054054054054	0.09435582236048468
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.10810810810810811	0.31939968196215307

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.