FROZEN PREDICTION

UL Monroe vs Arkansas State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Arkansas State by 7.0

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.305660-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.7062 · 80% margin interval -9.6 to 23.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.1393319282242448
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.043733147968050945
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	0.02849144370074768
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.10259103957770467
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.07697494818936818
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	-0.0262621062490435
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.019603899745190688
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.02293211431023513
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.0036329157113497877
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.026474354531260614
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.03839285918417659
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	0.07001777285956656
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.0016182501140666466
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.015580932009485862
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.03671263854344086
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.0917306848124935

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.