FROZEN PREDICTION

Delaware vs Kennesaw State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Kennesaw State by 2.8

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthNeutral effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentNeutral effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.305660-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.5867 · 80% margin interval -13.8 to 19.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.029548402158533438
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.008373570480160762
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.045327619040447756
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.10134814681997122
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.029163557701142012
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.006711401652899407
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.008661244002595136
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.0
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.040913979109008264
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.0
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.02112232349400761
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.08443755751061893
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.048358545298170755
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.10118001873620516

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.