FROZEN PREDICTION

Wyoming vs UNLV

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

UNLV by 6.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.305660-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.6856 · 80% margin interval -10.4 to 22.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.13731404561301197
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.02930749668056267
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.030218412693631836
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.04538959269407546
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.022379631370758074
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.0015238581238972773
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.010450920625018423
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.00259224980136373
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.003946018289701304
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.02664548350702775
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.07856125134502678
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.08982718884108397
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.04848409560807085
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.04001541264137437
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.10118001873620511

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.