FROZEN PREDICTION

Texas State vs Oregon State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 10 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Oregon State by 5.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.305660-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.6716 · 80% margin interval -10.9 to 22.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	0.12097379834595394
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	0.0923905482062
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.03505864354920959	0.04523014028982313
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	0.12081301842918347
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	0.02049329507765421
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.016982756200060053
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.014179192722074258
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.005870128260635062
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.009397754084683373
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.0070433092381864525
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	-0.052814339551978555
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07074721780604133	0.07011728709841918	0.0010019359312744697
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	0.021164347399706348
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	-0.016111168696127227
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	0.04067627634533672
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	0.10168363692758028

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.